Phosphene's Space Program
2026-05-07 08:36:47
Outline
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Things that don't work.
* Most ambitious space plans have very distant return on investment. Serious money avoids this.
Space tourism requires a steady supply of billionaire customers.
Asteroid mining to use on Earth, other problem, everything is cheaper on Earth.
A space elevator would be a huge multi decade investment in both research and construction before it generated the first penny of revenue.
etc.
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Polemic take:
Apollo was a Cold War PR stunt.
Artemis is boomer nostalgia for a Cold War PR stunt.
Artemis will be go by the wayside for the same reasons Apollo went by the wayside.
Robots can do the entire mission faster and safer at a tiny fraction of the cost.
It's the least efficient way possible to
The expense and effort to support human life in space overwhelms mission resources for everything else.
The expense and effort to support human life in space overwhelms mission resources for all other development.
Advancing into space humans-first is just dumb. It's like exploring fusion by putting humans in the reactor.
>>> Could show 'food pyramid' of Earth vs. Space environments.
[image: dependency pyramid for Earth vs. Space]
Human on Earth
dead rocks, gasses and water.
microbes and plants.
bugs and animals.
humans.
technology on top.
Human in space
dead rocks, gasses and water.
technology.
microbes and plants.
bugs and animals.
humans.
[image: infographic comparing human astronaut to robot, pros and cons]
Price per kg of human vs robot.
Human requires life support AND technical support/power. Remember pyramid!
Tele robot can work 24 hours as a team of 3-4 people.
Tele robot can bring any level of expertise.
Robot is more radiation proof.
It's not robots or humans. It's robots, OR robots plus humans.
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Already have an economy in space, and it's an information economy.
* There already is a space economy, it's mostly an information economy
. communications
. weather
. espionage, military
. GPS, positioning
. science: earth observation satellites, telescopes
The big space money is in offering services to this economy that save *them* money.
De-orbiting costs money
space junk costs money
Broken satellites cost money.
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Telerobotics (business model)
Large labor force on the ground remoting in to orbital maintenance robots.
// If training ML, residuals go to workers as passive income as if they were actors recorded in a movie. Any future profits from a worker's data set go back to that worker.
If a worker's data is used to train ML, that worker gets passive income on every dollar that data set earns, similar to an actor's residuals on recorded media.
[image: room full of VR/AR telerobot operators]
[image: single VR operator, surrounded by what they see, robot body and world]
[image: 0g mechanic robot]
[image: surface centaur robot]
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Stage 0.
Telerobotics on Earth services, dangerous, dirty etc. +$
Open source Excalibur 2SD game to find and train talent. https://thelaststarfighter.fandom.com/wiki/Excalibur +-$
Early research and development of full melting and manufacturing from recycled materials. -$
Stage 1.
Telerobotics in orbit to service satellites. +$
. repairs, refuels, mission extension vehicles. +$
. deorbits. +$
Stage 2.
Telerobots hoard dead satellites for remanufacture or recycling/foundry.
. no more deorbits, collect space junk in junkyards.
. Further R&D of melting and manufacturing from recycled materials in situ. -$
. reuse solar panels, +$
. use scrap metals as ion drive reaction mass. +$
. make wire, lots of wire, as a universal construction material. +$
Establish 'tinkertoy/lego' standards for modular in-space satellite construction.
. thruster modules, solar panel modules, computer modules, camera modules, antenna modules, what else? +$
. Economy-class customers can order satellites assembled in orbit without need for launch. +$
Stage 3.
After establishing a profitable ecosystem of in-space satellite manufacture, fund experimental use of natural resources. -$
. from the Moon
. Proof-of-concept quickie moon base to sling sintered bricks into low lunar orbit. -$
. And/or large asteroid samples brought back to L1.
Stage 4.
Full scrape-mining on the Moon, with some local manufacture, and sending bulk sintered raw material into orbit for satellite creation. +$
Stage 5.
Now we are free to make satellites much, much larger.
. Using lunar or asteroid raw materials, build crewed space station(s) in LEO and L1.
. L1 station as crewed realtime command center for lunar robotic operations.
. Possible large habitats for real human tourism.
. Habitats can be towed to other planets for long-term expeditions.
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